Forecasting Teacher Demand in China's Compulsory Education: A Time Series Analysis Approach

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the demand for full-time teachers in China's primary education system for the year 2027, utilizing the ARIMA model. By incorporating variables such as student enrollments, the target student-teacher ratio, the current number of teachers, and projected retirements, the analysis provides a comprehensive estimate of future teacher needs. The results indicate a projected demand of 788,500 full-time teachers by 2027. This finding highlights the necessity for strategic planning and resource allocation to ensure the quality of education amidst increasing demand. The study underscores the importance of proactive recruitment and training initiatives to address the anticipated growth in teacher requirements. Overall, this research contributes valuable insights for policymakers and educational planners in developing effective strategies to meet future educational demands and maintain high standards of primary education in China.